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Finally, Democrats shouldn’t despair. Far more than in 1994, the party’s current woes are a product of the business cycle. Although people no longer identify as strongly with him on the issues, Obama remains personally popular—certainly more popular than any of the Republican leaders in Congress. He’s not bedeviled by many of the cultural issues—from gun control to gays in the military to crime—that gave Bill Clinton fits. And demographically, the country is still moving the Democrats’ way (something that will be clearer in 2012, because minorities turn out at higher rates in presidential elections). Finally, even if he encounters further setbacks, Obama doesn’t have to worry about a primary challenge (that decision to get Hillary Clinton out of the Senate looks smarter every day), which means that despite their current squabbles, Democrats will be fairly united in 2012.

Most importantly, a stronger economy will strengthen public faith in government, and in Barack Obama. The economy may not rebound fast enough to save Democrats from big losses in November, but it will probably rebound in the next couple of years. And when it does, everything Obama has done over the last year will look better. Americans always distrust government until it delivers the goods. Obama’s challenge is to show that it still can.
 

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