No country can match the breadth and depth of American power in Asia. The United States has five treaty allies, the Pacific fleet, 80,000 troops, major military exercises, and billions of dollars of trade and investments. But over the last decade, the signals of US disengagement from the region have become at least as strong as the assets that prove its commitment. For countries in Asia, the key issue is whether they can rely on the US for the next 50 years in the same way they relied on it for the previous half century.
That makes the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to Asia next week all the more significant. It will be the first attempt by the Obama administration at defusing perceptions of America’s waning commitment to Asia. In her first trip in her new role, Clinton will travel to China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. The itinerary suggests that she intends to take a closer interest in the region, more so than her predecessor.
But any hopes of a significantly revived US engagement should be tempered with realism. Clinton’s visit ultimately is more about optics than any fundamental changes in its policy towards the region.
The view in Jakarta and other Asian capitals is that President Barack Obama will continue existing US policies in the region for at least the next year or two, being bogged down by other more pressing issues such as Afghanistan and Iraq. He also has to deal with the global financial crisis and a battered American economy.
There might be adjustments in US policy towards Asia. But there will not be a volte face. The Sino-American relationship — an issue that looms largest for Washington in Asia — is instructive in this respect. There is likely to be continuity with the Bush administration. Bush’s China policy was an exception to his legacy as a unilateralist. President Obama is also likely to take a fairly benign approach to China.
Reflecting perhaps current thinking in Washington, Jeffrey Bader, now the Senior Director for Asia in the National Security Council — the White House point man for the region — wrote several months ago when he was a scholar at the Brookings Institution:
“The logic is simple: China has massive capacity to affect the world for better or worse. Cooperating with Beijing may challenge US values, but the bond between nations improves global equanimity... Our policy towards China should be tethered firmly to reality and should match action to rhetoric.”
The reality might be different if one watches only the rhetoric coming out of Washington and Beijing. But the early comments by the new administration about “currency manipulation” proved to be a storm in a teacup.
However, it underscored China’s worry about trade protectionism and potentially other issues thta might crop up under the Obama administration. In the short-term at least, the US is unlikely to take a tough stance on China, even on economic issues.
Like the Bush administration, however, it will continue to hedge against China’s growing military power. According to Stratfor, a US-based private intelligence agency, Obama might tinker with the US alliance structure in Asia, where Japan could emerge as a pivot. Tokyo will be called upon increasingly to move away more rapidly from its postwar prohibition on asserting
itself militarily.
The military focus on Japan might also translate into a revival of economic ties, as US attention in Asia shifts gradually from China to Japan. Historically, China and Japan have never been powerful at the same time. For centuries, Japan was weak and China strong. For the last 200 years, however, Japan has been strong and China weak.
Having both countries powerful in the same era will be an unprecedented challenge for the US, and regional states especially South Korea. Wedged between these two rising powers, South Korea might drop a notch on the US priority list. US forces continue to be based in South Korea but the numbers are declining and becoming more mobile — a pattern that is likely to continue in the immediate future.
Another concern for Seoul — which will certainly be raised when Clinton visits Seoul — is how Obama will deal with North Korea. Given the expanding military cooperation with Japan, Washington could be emboldened to take a more bilateral approach with Pyongyang. This move will weaken the influence of China and South Korea.
Indonesia is the final piece of the US-Asia jigsaw puzzle. It is no surprise that Clinton is making that trip to Jakarta as part of her four-nation tour of Asia. It is really to pave the way for a highly-anticipated visit by President Obama in November or earlier.
As the world’s most populous Muslim nation, Indonesia is the ideal place for Obama to deliver a major speech on repairing America’s strained ties with the Muslim world.
There is a view in Washington that Indonesia, with its moderate Muslim base, could play the role of a mediator. It will help the US reduce the huge soft power deficit the Bush administration had created with its policies in the Middle East.
Like Japan, Indonesia could well emerge as another key player for America’s global strategic objectives. There is also a regional dimension. Indonesia could also be used as a countervailing power to Chinese ambitions in Asia.
Washington has in recent years expressed concern over Beijing’s diplomatic charm offensive in the region, and its growing rapprochement with ASEAN countries, especially Indonesia. Following the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005, President Yudhoyono went to China and signed several economic and security-related agreements. This included a deal to get Chinese assistance to develop medium range missiles.
All of these agreements were signed in the context of “fleshing out” a strategic partnership. President Yudhoyono is calling for a “strategic partnership” with the US today. Washington might just heed that call in time.
It is still early days in the Obama administration. Crystal ball gazing is never easy but the contours of Asia policy are becoming slowly apparent though. They will remain largely the same with some adjustments.
It is old wine in a new bottle, and with time could taste much better.
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