●Obama Readies for Calm, Lukewarm China_自考专本|专升本|高升专|高升本|在职研究生-学历教育网

The U.S. and Chinese presidents hope to strengthen relations at a November meeting in Beijing. But there's also tension in the air.

By Charles Freeman

(Caijing.com.cn) Unlike every U.S. president since Jimmy Carter, President Barack Obama entered the White House without a significant hangover of anti-China rhetoric from an election campaign. Indeed, the Obama administration has for the most part been able to focus on continuity in U.S.-China relations on the premise that the previous administration largely got China right.

Inside the administration, in fact, many officials think a good bilateral relationship with Beijing is at least a part of, if not a key to, resolving nearly every major, international issue on the Obama plate. While U.S. and Chinese officials are quick to discount the notion of an unofficial "G-2" compact, many in Washington see utility in promoting an informal G-2 relationship for tackling global issues as varied as climate change and financial architecture.

Given this situation, Obama's upcoming November visit to China is viewed by many as a litmus test for future U.S.-China relations. How much attention each country's respective priorities receive at the table will have significant implications for the nature and content of U.S. relations with China under Obama.

After Obama's term began on a high note with Beijing, and despite a fundamental recognition in Beijing and Washington that the U.S.-China relationship is "too big to fail," tensions between the two countries have appeared in economic and security spheres. U.S. tariffs on tires imported from China were imposed under a special safeguard provision widely viewed in China as discriminatory, fueling resentment in Beijing. Some Chinese officials have said retaliatory measures are on the way that, unless cooler heads prevail, could lead to a tit-for-tat trade war.

Thus, Chinese leaders will be particularly attentive to any signs in Beijing that that the United States may not honor recent free trade commitments. Likewise, U.S. leaders hope to see more direct Chinese action toward increasing domestic consumption and lowering its savings rate.

Military tensions were stoked by Chinese harassment of U.S. surveillance ships operating in China's "exclusive economic zone" last spring. Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao will undoubtedly try to calm the waters on military as well as trade fronts. Deputy National Security Adviser Denis McDonough said recently the trip represents an "opportunity to solidify what has been a very good start in the bilateral relationship." But an ongoing, working-level dialogue on sticky issues has been insubstantial at best.

Tension also flared recently over China's perceived soft-pedaling toward Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's flaunting of international non-proliferation norms. Finding a path forward on these issues, particularly on military-to-military communications, will be a key goal for Obama's trip.

Recent Chinese action has hinted at the possibility for progress on North Korea. In September, Hu sent a high-level envoy to North Korea to discuss relations. After the delegation hand-delivered a letter from Hu urging North Korea to work with China toward a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, the north's leader Kim Jong-Il indicated he was prepared to resume talks on dismantling his nuclear program. Such direct action is surely appreciated by the Obama administration, and may signal a willingness on China's part to play a larger role in policing North Korea.

As noted, much of the administration's attention to U.S.-China relations has been in the area of climate change. Obama is hoping for some kind of solid breakthrough on cooperation in this arena that he can announce in Beijing. Due to low expectations for progress at the UN Copenhagen Conference in December, such cooperation could renew optimism for international progress. But reports suggest such a breakthrough may be fundamentally elusive.

Indeed, the U.S special envoy on climate change recently indicated that, at least at this point, there would be no attempt at a bilateral climate deal. While this doesn't necessarily preclude the possibility of increased cooperation, significant progress between the United States and China is unlikely, while the fate of pending U.S. domestic energy policy remains uncertain. China will likely delay significant climate negotiations with the United States until the implications of current U.S. cap-and-trade proposals to Chinese trade are better understood.

Two less pressing issues will shadow the president's trip as well. China's sensitivities to notional separatist movements in Tibet and Xinjiang, always high, have reached a boiling point of sorts. The president's decision to put off meeting the Dali Lama until after meeting the Chinese president helped cool that bilateral issue, although a flare-up at any time is possible.

Second, Obama will be asked to decide on a new package of arms sales to Taipei in the near future that could include F-16 fighter jets. Such a move could prompt China to cancel military-to-military relations at a critical juncture, just the Beijing government did after an arms deal was cut at the tail end of the George W. Bush presidency.

Worth noting, and undoubtedly a subject that will arise during Obama's trip, is China's increased assertiveness in staking out a greater role in reshaping future global financial and economic architecture. In particular, Beijing has been vocal in its support for creating "an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations," which means the U.S. dollar. China has taken steps to internationalize the yuan as well as diversify its dollar reserves. While in reality China's currency is still a long way from challenging the U.S. dollar's global reserve status, Washington has been put on notice that China will use its economic weight, financial resources, and geopolitical influence to act as a major player in the international financial system.

Overall, Obama's trip represents a genuine opportunity to strengthen U.S.-Chinese relations. Obama appears to understand the gravity of future U.S.-China relations and, as his decision to postpone a Dalai Lama meeting indicates, he is willing to accommodate sensitive Chinese priorities. To be sure, significant tensions exist. Further, a negative Chinese reaction to a potential U.S. arms package to Taipei could easily outweigh any gains made in Beijing. However, recent positive interaction and a lack of any explosive issues for now are among the reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

Charles Freeman holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at Center for Strategic & International Studies.

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