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The Republican establishment is fully aware of the fact that they can't
win on any substantial issue of public policy on the merits of their
arguments alone. There is no broad constituency in America for showering
the top 1 percent with tax breaks, handing huge subsidies to energy
firms and giant agribusinesses and pharmaceutical firms, starting wars
of choice, cutting social services or privatizing broad swaths of the
public sector.

So they emphasize social issues and conjure up fear of foreign bogey-men
in order to remain relevant. And they marginalize and demonize their
opponents, which has been a central thrust of conservative messaging
since the days of Spiro Agnew and Joe McCarthy. In logic, it's known as
"poisoning the well
<http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/poisoning-the-well.html>" --
making one's interlocutor out to be such a heinous beast that anything
he or she says will be perceived, without examination, as an assault on
our core values.

At heart, there's a fundamental divide between Obama's post-partisan
rhetoric, and the hunger among many progressives for a fighter who will
stand up to the Right-wing noise machine and effectively slug it out
with the GOP. That goes a long way to explaining why Obama, despite an
almost perfect biography and the caché of being a Beltway outsider at a
time when the insiders are so widely loathed, never seemed to catch on
with the left "blogosphere" the way one would have expected him to.

But if Iowa showed anything, it's that it's not wise to underestimate
Obama's approach. As every political observer knows, the themes a
politician uses on the campaign trail often don't match his or her style
of governance once elected. That's rarely considered a good thing, but
in this case, people seeking /real/ change should /hope/ that Obama's
feel-good language is just campaign spin.

That's because progressives' best hope with Barack Obama would be that
he use his message of "hope" and reconciliation to bring millions of new
voters into the process for the first time, gather an enormous amount of
political capital, and then turn around, take off the gloves and shove
that mandate right down the GOP's throat.

Because if it /is/ Obama in the end, there will be a real opportunity
for him to lead the kind of political realignment that this country last
saw during the "Reagan Revolution" in 1980. Obscured by the focus on how
the race factor will play out, the simple fact is that a contest between
Obama and any of the likely GOP nominees is going to present a stark
contrast -- a visible manifestation of the "two Americas" theme-- and
one that would serve Obama very well.

Because if it comes down to Obama, with his young, optimistic and
energized followers, against a grumpy old McCain running on his support
of the war, or Huckabee, the affable cleric surrounded by dour looking
middle-aged evangelicals (and Chuck Norris), or Giuliani, who's mean as
a snake and parodies himself every time he answers a healthcare question
by invoking 9/11, or a stuffed shirt like Mitt Romney -- all (except
Huckabee) angry, all hoping to scare voters into supporting them -- if
that were the choice, then Barack Obama's America might just win in a
landslide.

http://www.alternet.org/election08/72807/?page=entire

Sw

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