由彼得·希夫们的赖账说开去

2022-12-18 20:38 自考

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由彼得·希夫们的赖账说开去

乌有之乡

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美国人要赖账了（或者说根本就没有过还的打算），原以为只有市井流氓才用的无赖手段，美国人却把它用到了国际政治交往中。美国人的账赖得如此轻松写意，脸不红心不跳，可见其脸皮之厚。赖账本不是什么光荣的事，赖就赖吧，完全可以低调点，一张欠条打个千年万年也就算了，而中国买办精英捏张白条也好继续糊弄国人，彼得·希夫你又何必把纸捅破，让人难堪呢？可见对彼得·希夫们来说，养的这些中国狗除了满身骚味的狗肉尚可食用外，已没多少利用价值了。中国百姓的情绪也完全没有照顾的必要，因为在他们眼里，中国百姓和戴着脚镣手铐，在狗腿子的皮鞭驱使下劳作的奴隶已没什么区别。此情此景，不由让人想到三四十年代挂在上海租界黄浦公园门口的一块醒目的标牌：“华人与狗不得入内”，痛心不已。

当初日本发动了长达八年的一场侵华战争，从中国攫取的财富也就是上千亿美元，现在美国政府不费一枪一弹，就从中国攫取上万亿美元资产。公然赖掉中国8千亿美元美国国债，无论是财产上的损失，还是精神层面上的伤害，都远远超过了美国轰炸中国南斯拉夫大使馆，只是手段使得更隐蔽一些。更令人痛心的是国人的麻木，国内主流媒体对此视而不见，主流精英扬言还要继续购买美国国债，思想最为活跃的高校阵地更是超乎寻常的寂静，寂静得可怕。最近所发生的一切大事，诸如美国等西方势力支持下的藏独、疆独、台独、南海争端、钓鱼岛、南海领土争端、国庆禁卖菜刀以及中国成为转基因实验场等等无不预示着中国还将沿着1840以来的道路再走一次。不同的是，这次美元代替了鸦片，转基因粮食代替了生化武器；相同的是国人依旧麻木，政府依旧软弱。“洋务运动”和“改革开放”其实本属同一事物，只是换了说法，如不汲取教训，也必定会殊途同归。究其根本，并不是主流精英所说的那样“中国缺少开放”，而洽洽是缺少对开放过程中出现的种种问题的反思与重视，特别是片面追求经济的发展而忽略民生保障、忽略社会公平，正如联合国《1996 年人类发展报告》曾指出的五种有增长而无发展的情况，即：无工作的增长(jobless growth) ,指经济增长未能提供足够多的就业机会，甚至恶化了就业形势；无声的增长(voiceless growth) ，指经济增长未能扩大公众参与和管理公共事务，未能扩大自由表达自己的意见和观点的可能性；无情的增长(ruthless growth) ，指经济增长导致了收入分配不平等格局的恶化，财富的扩大甚至带来了新的贫困阶级；无根的增长(rootless growth) ，指经济增长对文化多样性造成的破坏，导致本土文化的危机以及民族冲突的发生；无未来的增长(futureless growth) ，指经济增长对生态、资源和环境造成的破坏，影响了经济增长的可持续性。除第一种有待考究外（产业工人、农民工长期维持在最低生活限度的就业与其说是就业还不如说是奴役、压榨），其余四种一一对号入座，而国内却是太平盛世般的沾沾自喜，长此以往必将导致改革的成果损失殆尽，社会危机也将接踵而至。

附录：美国欧洲太平洋资本有限公司总裁彼得．希夫（Peter Schiff，president of Euro Pacific Capital）2009年7月12日在米塞斯研究院的演讲《为什么我们不应对金融危机感到意外》（Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One）摘要

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——你知道，昨天中国领导人公开表示对借给我们的钱“有些”担忧【台下大笑】，说“有可能”我们还不了。我想他们不只是“有些”担忧，这只是公开说法，想象一下他们私下会怎么看？他们一定知道我们不会还这笔钱，不可能给中国人还这笔钱，这是绝对不可能的。
Because the Chinese just mentioned yesterday that they were getting a little concerned about all the money they loaned us and that just maybe we won't pay them back. I'm sure they're a lot more than just a little concerned, because that's what they said publicly. Imagine what they're saying privately.
Because they know we're not going to pay them back. Of course we're not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It's impossible. We can't. We can't possibly.
——想象一下，某天总统奥巴马，对着数万亿美国民众，发表一次公开的电视演说。他这样说道：
“亲爱的美国同胞们，今天非常不幸地，我给你们带来了一个坏消息。政府决定对美国普通民众大幅加税；那些仍然没有失业的人，将为此支付更高的个人所得税；政府将全面削减社会福利，仍然没有实施的各种福利措施将彻底取消；我原先制定的所有计划，包括全民教育、医疗保障、自主能源，所有这些计划将被无限期搁置。因为中国人要我们还钱！【台下长时间狂笑】我们借的实在是太多了，全世界妇孺皆知【台下笑】。欠债还钱，天经地义。所以我们必须勒紧裤腰带给中国人还钱！【台下大笑】”
Can you imagine? Can you imagine if President Obama, giving the following type of speech to the American citizens.
He'll give a national televised address and say, "My fellow Americans, I've got a little news for you today. We're going to have to have a massive, across-the-board tax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job is going to have to pay much higher income taxes.
"And, as a matter of fact, we're going to have to cut Social Security across the board. Forget the Social Security check, we're going to have to reduce it. And remember all my plans about more education and health care for everybody and energy independence, we got to put all those plans on hold, because the Chinese need their money.
"We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we're good for our debts. They worked hard for that money and they loaned it us to and we're going to pay it back. And that's going to require a big sacrifice on our part."
——大家认为这样的事可能发生吗？别开玩笑了。
我们更应该对中国人说：“你们是食利者！放高利贷者！我们需要修改游戏规则【笑】，我们要打破债务枷锁！你们明知我们还不了，还借给我们那么多钱！【台下大笑】这不是我们的错！”
Does anyone think that we're going to do that? What are they, kidding me?
Do you know what we're going to tell the Chinese? We're going to say, "You guys are predators, predator lenders. We need a modification program. We need a cramdown on this. You never should have lent us all this money. You know we can't pay it back. It's not our fault."
——中国人自己很清楚，他们无法参与我们的政治选举，我们为什么还要在意中国人怎么想？华盛顿难道会得罪选民，去取悦非选民？
The Chinese know this. The Chinese, they can't even vote in our elections. Why are we going to care what they think? We're going to tax voters to pay non-voters?
——中国人很清楚，我们不可能还他们钱，这和伯尼?麦道夫的骗局是同一个道理。别人借我们钱，我们是怎么还的？——再去借新债。
So the Chinese know they're in this box. The US government, we don't pay our bills. We're like Bernie Madoff. People loan us money. How do we pay it back? We borrow more.
——麦道夫早期的客户确实能把钱要回来，为什么？因为麦道夫仍然在吸收新钱，骗那些还不知道这是庞氏骗局的人入会。财政部也在做同样的事情，国债到期了怎么办？——再把它卖给其他人。需要支付利息怎么办？——照借不误。如果有一天谁也不愿再买我们的国债了，那就只能违约，和麦道夫一样。违约只有两条途径，要么直接宣布不还，要么印钱。这就是这些债务唯一可能的结局，反正它们不可能被偿还。中国人当然知道这一切，我们很快就会明白。
If somebody came to Bernie Madoff a couple years ago and wanted their money, they got it. Why did they get it? Because they were able to take in new money. They found another sucker who didn't know it was a Ponzi scheme.
Same thing the US government does. Every time a bond matures, we just go sell another one. And every time we need to pay interest on the national debt, we go borrow that too. Well, it works until nobody wants to lend us any more money, then we're going to have to default, just like Bernie did.
And there's only two ways we can default. We just legitimately don't pay, or we print money. That's it. There's only two ways to repudiate your debt. There's no way we're going to pay the debt; the Chinese have to know that, and we're going to figure that out.
——在我看来，与其把麦道夫投进监狱，我们不如任命他为财政部部长【台下听众狂笑】，因为他的经验是我们最最需要的——那就是玩“庞氏骗局”的经验。【台下大笑】
And, of course, I said, instead of putting Bernie Madoff in jail, we should just make him Secretary of the Treasury. Because he's got a lot of experience, exactly the kind that we need, running a Ponzi scheme.