The one region where Republicans ran worse in 2010 than in 2002-2004 is the Frontier. Part of the reason is the increasing participation of Latino voters in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, which enabled Obama to carry the latter two states and might have made Arizona a battleground had it not been the home state of John McCain. In contrast, Colorado and Arizona were not target states in the 2000 or 2004 presidential elections. The Frontier states voted solidly Republican in 2010, but not as heavily as in 2002-2004 or even 2000.
In contrast, the South Atlantic, the other major region that switched from Republican majorities in 2002-2004 to even voting or Democratic majorities in 2006-2008, switched back in 2010 to become as heavily Republican as it was in 2002-2004.
Looking back over a decade of the popular vote for the House, we see a nation that appears marginally Republican in 2000-2004 and again in 2010 (Republicans’ 48% of the House vote in 2000 was fractionally larger than the Democrats’ percentage that year) and rather solidly Democratic in 2006-2008. In the rather solidly Democratic nation, no region is heavily or reliably Republican, while Democrats carry the Foundry and Germano-Scandinavian America by small margins and the North Atlantic and Pacific by very wide margins. In the marginally Republican nation, only the North Atlantic and Pacific are solidly Democratic, while both Southern regions and the Frontier are pretty solidly Republican (though the Frontier may be getting less so), and Republicans are highly competitive in the Foundry and Germano-Scandinavian America.
Which America will we be living in for the 2012 election? Recent precedent suggests it will resemble 2010 and 2002-2004 America more than 2006-2008 America. But there can be no certainty about the outcome. A more modest suggestion may be in order. In making assessments about possible outcomes, psephologists would be wise to keep in mind not only the 2008 vote for president, which is commonly used as a benchmark, but also the popular vote for the House in 2010, which helps us understand the range of possibilities as we try to look ahead.
Michael Barone is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
FURTHER READING: Barone's other contributions to THE AMERICAN include,“It Depends on What the Definition of ‘Austerity’ Is,” “The Democrats Have a Concentration Problem,” and “America in an Age of Open Field Politics.”He has also written “Federal Expansion the Real Issue in Debt Ceiling Debate,” “New Reality Emerging on Illegal Immigration,” and “‘Man-Cession’ Ends as Males Learn New Job Skills.”
1. Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.
2. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania.
3. Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin.
4. Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming.
5. California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington.
6. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia.
7. Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia.
Image by Darren Wamboldt/Bergman Group.
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