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Although every US president since Richard Nixon has gone to China, Mr Obama's visit to Shanghai and Beijing will be especially closely watched. This reflects China's rapidly rising power, and the crucial importance of stable and productive relations between China and the US. In addition, the global economic crisis has reinforced these trends, accelerating the shift of economic power from West to East. Although talk of China and the US forming an all-powerful "G2" is overblown, Sino-US co-operation is increasingly vital for the resolution of many global problems. In a broad sense, Mr Obama's trip will set the tone for how the two countries will manage the economic and geopolitical recalibrations required in the aftermath of the crisis. However, if the post-crisis context makes Mr Obama's visit especially significant, it will not make reaching agreement on the main areas of contention any easier.本科

Climate change

In the run-up to the US president's trip to China, speculation has been rife that the two sides are preparing to unveil a climate-change deal. The significance of such a deal would be immense: not only do China and the US account for around two-fifths of global carbon emissions, but any workable compromise between them would also be regarded as a template for resolving the disagreements between rich and poor countries that will almost certainly scupper the international climate-change summit in Copenhagen in December. However, the chances that Mr Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, will unveil such a deal in Beijing are remote. Indeed, Mr Obama's team has spent the past few weeks downplaying the possibility of a landmark agreement.

One reason is that the two sides' negotiating positions remain far apart. Unlike his predecessor, Mr Obama has pledged to prioritise the fight against climate change as a policy issue. However, the US remains unwilling to cut carbon emissions drastically or to make massive financial and technology transfers in the absence of any reciprocal agreement from China to cap future emissions. China, meanwhile, remains allergic to signing any accord that could potentially constrain its economic development. Another obstacle is that the US legislature has yet to create the required domestic legal framework. This leaves the US's negotiating partners uncertain that any deal they hammer out will be implemented. As a result, although energy co-operation will be a theme of Mr Obama's discussions with the Chinese leadership—deals are likely to be announced in alternative energy, clean-coal technology and other areas—expectations of a breakthrough agreement will be disappointed.

Trade spat

Trade issues are likely to dominate bilateral discussions. In the past few months, escalating trade tensions have done little to encourage hopes that the post-crisis world will feature smooth co-operation between the world's largest and soon-to-be second-largest economies. Following a US decision in September to impose tariffs on cheap Chinese tyres, against which China retaliated by announcing an investigation into US poultry imports, the two sides have exchanged a series of tit-for-tat protectionist gestures. Less than a week before Mr Obama's arrival in China, the US has imposed preliminary tariffs on steel pipes—a decision that China, which had just slapped tariffs on US chemicals, labelled "abusive protectionism".

Despite the rise in confrontational rhetoric, the US and China are far too economically inter-dependent to risk a full-blown trade war. Both countries have strong incentives to keep broader trade relations on an even keel. The US depends on China continuing to buy its Treasuries in order to fund its widening fiscal deficit, while China's export sector depends on continued access to the massive US market. As this suggests, rising trade tensions are partly a symptom of the challenges both countries face in adjusting to the new global economic landscape. With the US's capability to absorb Chinese exports much diminished, a return to the pre-crisis dynamic—profligate US consumption indirectly financed by huge Chinese purchases of US debt—is off the cards.

Currency dispute

By slashing US demand for imports, the global economic crisis has already begun to correct the huge US-China trade imbalance. However, at the root of these trade frictions is the perennial US complaint that the Chinese currency is significantly undervalued, giving an unfair advantage to Chinese exporters. In response to this, China will raise concerns about the US's fiscal responsibilities, given the falling value of China's vast holdings of US dollars and government debt. In short, both sides recognise that current imbalances are unsustainable.

Mr Obama has promised to raise the currency issue in Beijing—but any public discussion is likely to be couched in terms of mutual commitment to rebalancing the global economy. Although recent comments by central bank officials appeared to recognise the need to allow the renminbi to strengthen, China remains very unlikely to revalue the renminbi in a sudden manner; the Economist Intelligence Unit expects a slow but steady appreciation of the Chinese currency from Rmb6.83:US$1 in 2009 to Rmb5.93:US$1 in 2014.

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