Barack Obama's victory is remark-able and inspiring. The US has elected its first black president – a man whose chances even of winning his party's nomination seemed slim two years ago. If there are moments when history pivots, this is one.
His triumph was no fluke. The presidency did not fall into Mr Obama's lap. He and his team planned and executed a flawless and audacious campaign, aimed not at sections of the electorate or regions of the country, but at the nation as a whole. In Hillary Clinton and John McCain, he had to defeat two formidable rivals. To do it, he rewrote the campaign textbook, raising astonishing sums in small donations. And his team's greatest asset was the candidate himself, a man whose calm and steady temperament made his message of change seem comforting. To challenge and reassure at the same time requires political talent of the highest order. Mr Obama is a once-in-a-generation politician.
Even the most jaded observer must feel that a new chapter in US history has begun. Previous historical turning points suggest themselves for comparison. Is Mr Obama another Franklin Roosevelt, ready to embark on a radical remaking of the country's political and social fabric? Or is he, odd as the parallel may seem, more like Ronald Reagan, inspirational but not so revolutionary, a man with ideas but a political unifier as well?
As far as one can judge, the country's hopes owe more to the unique qualities of Mr Obama, and to the difficult circumstances that confront him, than to any upheaval in its sense of what it wants. Once the celebrations following this extra- ordinary election are over, there is a warning here for the Obama administration-in-waiting.
The president-elect has won a commanding majority in the electoral college, and by the standards of his Democratic predecessors, an impressive margin of support, 52 per cent to 47 per cent, in the popular vote. Carried on Mr Obama's coat-tails, Democrats will enjoy significantly strengthened majorities in both houses of Congress, even if they just fail to achieve the 60 Senate seats they need to overcome a filibuster. It will be argued that this Democratic sweep of both the White House and the Congress is a mandate for far-reaching change. Mr Obama needs to weigh this argument very carefully.
He is, to be sure, no status quo politician. His most important domestic policy proposal – comprehensive reform of the US health-care system – is ambitious, and not one from which the country would wish to see him retreat. But he needs to remember that in a year in which every force, including his own magnetic appeal, was aligned in support of a Democratic victory, roughly half of the electorate voted for Mr McCain. It is safe to say that the next Congress, keen to seize a rare opportunity, will wish to govern as though that half of the electorate did not exist. Mr Obama's biggest challenge – and he faces many – will be to remind his own party that he is the president of the whole country.
Republicans now are counting on a rerun of 1992-94, after Bill Clinton led the Democrats to a victory comparable to Mr Obama's. The Democrats overreached, aiming to govern as though the US had become a solidly Democratic country. Voters rebelled, the party lost its control of Congress at the next mid-term elections, and Mr Clinton was then obliged to govern almost as though he were a conservative. Much was subsequently achieved – but the greatest prize, healthcare reform, fell victim to the hubris of those first two years.
It is not as though Democrats are unaware of the risk. This bitter experience is seared into their collective memory. Many in the party vow that there will be no repetition. But the exuberance aroused by Mr Obama's triumph will be a force to be reckoned with. Already some Democrats are talking as though the entire US has repudiated not just the Bush administration, but also the centre-right political values that put George W. Bush in the White House (twice) to begin with. This is the surest path to disillusion and disappointment.
Mr Obama appears to understand. He ran a campaign that appealed to the centre, promising, among other things, tax cuts for almost all US households. Because of this carefully nurtured breadth of appeal, he starts with an enormous stock of political capital and the goodwill of much of the nation. He must take care to conserve both. To deal with the economic crisis and the many other challenges that confront him – to say nothing of succeeding where Mr Clinton failed, on health-care reform – he will need all of it and more. We congratulate him, and wish him well.
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