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Marc Lynch is right to distrust whether these protests amount to anything resembling a systematic democratic movement. On present evidence, they don't appear to be that. Protests can be spontaneous expressions of rage, but the presence of spontaneous violence usually means that's all they are. Movements that use civil resistance to dissolve the political power of an authoritarian ruling group are something altogether different, and to be effective, they almost always have to be nonviolent, because violent tactics inhibit broad-based mobilization and will do the opposite from prompting divisions in a decaying ruling group. Globally, in 50 of 67 transitions from authoritarianism to democracy between 1970 and 2005, nonviolent civic force was the pivotal factor. 专科

That these particular protests may not amount to such a movement in Tunisia does not mean that there isn't widespread discontent and a desire for a change of government there or elsewhere in the region. In Egypt, the increased number of reform and pro-democratic NGO's, student groups, a dissident blogosphere, and other indicators of a kind of slow-motion civic resistance are unmistakable, though they may anticipate a transition offering conventional political channels of change once Mubarak passes from the scene.

Movements capable inducing rapid change are not, in fact, unprecedented in the Middle East, as a well-research new book, "Civilian Jihad," documents: http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=384033

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