商品详细信息-商城原版保障How Barack Obama Won:奥巴马竞选之路
商城原版保障How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election 奥巴马竞选之路内容简介： From NBC's political director and elections director. Readers who pick this up for, say, a quick check of McCain's margin of victory in Montana will find themselves tempted to embark on a full cross-country trip through these pages. States here are divided into four categories: "Battleground States," "Receding Battleground States," "Emerging Battleground States," and "Red and Blue States" (not clear why that wasn't two separate lists). Entries are from two to five pages long, more for states in flux than the true Blue or Red ones, with a clear format of both textual and tabular information on the state's 2008 presidential choice, its party support in the past, and what to keep an eye on in future elections. A final section of tables analyzing the 2008 electorate is fascinating. For all interested readers.—MH 编辑推荐： How Barack Obama Won—by one of the most lauded political journalists of our time, and one of the most respected pollsters in the business—gives us not only the inside state-by-state guide to how Obama achieved his victory, but also the essential toolbox for understanding the political implications of the 2008 presidential election—where the country stands vis-à-vis Red and Blue states, where it currently is and is headed politically, and whether a political realignment has taken place.The book features an introduction by Chuck Todd, putting the 2008 presidential election in political and demographic perspective, even as it reveals national trends. The final electoral map will appear in the front matter, as will unexpected "fun facts." The book is divided into four parts, each of which proceeds alphabetically state by state: Battleground States (e.g., Colorado, Florida, Idaho); Emerging Battleground States (e.g., Arizona, Georgia, Montana); Receding Battleground States (e.g., Michigan, Pennsylvania); Red and Blue States (e.g., Idaho and Mississippi, California and New York).The votes in each state for Obama and McCain are broken down by percentage according to gender, age, race, party, religious affiliation, education, household income, size of city, and according to views about the most important issue (the economy, terrorism, Iraq, energy, healthcare), the future of the economy (worried, not worried) and the war in Iraq (approve, disapprove). Comparative figures for the 2004 Bush–Kerry election are provided. Each state profile is comprised of a table of numbers—with crucial lines highlighted—and analysis. From the book's treasury of facts you will learn about:First Time Voters: The ratio of first-time to previous voters was identical to the 2004 split. Eleven percent (11%) of the electorate voted for the first time in 2004 and 2008. In 2008 70% voted for Obama whereas in 2004 only 53% voted for Kerry.White Voters: Obama won the white vote in 18 states and the District of Columbia: CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, NH, NY, OR, RI, WA, WI and VT. Obama received less than 35% of the white vote in 13 states, with Louisiana (14%), Mississippi (11%) and Alabama (10%) picking up the rear.The Bush Factor: With the exception of Missouri (which barely went to McCain), Obama won every state where Bush's approval rating was below 35% in the exit polls; he lost every state where Bush's approval rating was above 35%. Bush's approval rating was highest in Utah (47%), which supported McCain by a 29 point margin, and lowest in Washington,D.C. (8%), where McCain received only 7% of the vote.Florida: Votes for McCain were 25,000 fewer than for Bush in 2004; Obama's exceeded Kerry's by 540,000.Ohio: Votes for Obama were 34,000 fewer than for Kerry in 2004; McCain's, however, were 350,000 short of Bush's.By the way, since 1928 there has not been a winning Republican presidential/vice-presidential ticket without a Bush or Nixon. 作者简介： Chuck Todd is NBC News political director, chief White House correspondent for NBC, and a contributing editor to"Meet the Press". He also serves as NBC News' on-air political analyst for "NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams," "Today," "Meet the Press," and such MSNBC programs as "Morning Joe," and "Hardball with Chris Matthews." Before joining NBC News, Todd was editor-in-chief ofNational Journal's"The Hotline," Washington's premier daily briefing on America politics. He has also written Op-Ed pieces forThe New York Timesand theWashington Postand for theAtlantic Monthly, where he is a contributing editor. He teaches a graduate political communications course at Johns Hopkins University.Sheldon Gawiser is NBC director of elections; he heads the NBC News election decision team in charge of making projections and overseeing news analysis of the exit polls. He was a founder of the NBC/Associated Press Poll and is a trustee of the National Council on Public Polls. Dr. Gawiser, in addition to being a pollster extraordinaire, is an Emmy nominated producer and winner of a special Emmy for his work on September 11th. He is author of five books and numerous articles on public opinion polling and elections, includingA Journalist's Guide to Public Opinion Polls(Praeger, 1994). 内容摘要： These are the eight states that were the most contentious in this election. Some have been battlegrounds for the last several elections, such as Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. Others were battleground states for the first time this year, such as Indiana, Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia. In 2008, the candidates focused a great deal on these states. Some were very close, Missouri and North Carolina in particular, while others such as Iowa had a wider margin than in the past. But each and every one of these states was a contest and probably should be keyed on as folks put together their battleground state lists for 2012.COLORADOCan Democrats Continue Their Recent Sweeps?9 Electoral VotesColorado has voted Republican in all but three elections since World War II. But today Colorado is considered a battleground state due in large measure to changes in population. And in 2008 Obama won the battle by a significant margin. The polls showed a consistent Obama lead after the conventions that widened in October. The polls slightly underestimated the final Obama margin.Turnout was up 2.7 percentage points, to 69.4%, from 2004. Obama won 28 of the 64 counties, flipping six from the GOP slate in 2004. McCain won 38 counties.The biggest Obama wins were in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, Denver suburbs that the campaign targeted and where they did well. The two counties are mostly part of the state's 6th Congressional District, the one once held by former conservative Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo. And Coors Brewing Company and the conservative Coors family have long been associated with Golden in Jefferson County.McCain needed big majorities out of Douglas, El Paso (Colorado Springs), and Mesa. He got them, but the majorities shrank substantially from 2004.One minor item of note: the nation's newest county, Broomfield, carved out of Boulder County in 2001, flipped from Republican in its first ever presidential election in 2004 to Democratic in 2008. In the caucus of February 5, 2008, Obama received 66.6% of the vote and Clinton received 32.3%.Obama's performance with white college graduates put him over the top in Colorado. More than half, 58%, of voters in Colorado were college graduates and 49% were white college graduates. Obama did even better with them in Colorado than he did nationally. Obama won college-educated white voters, beating McCain 56% to 42%. Four years ago, white voters with a college education just barely favored Kerry over Bush, 51% to 47%, while whites with no college education went for Bush 62% to 36%.Obama also had significant support among the one-third of voters whose families earn more than $100,000. Fifty-six percent of those voters were for Obama compared to 43% for McCain. In 2004 these upper-income individuals only represented one in five voters, and they went for Bush over Kerry 55% to 44%.Colorado is home to dozens of conservative megaministries (including James Dobson's Focus on the Family) that employ tens of thousands of people. Evangelical voters made up a quarter of the vote in 2004 and voted overwhelmingly for Bush. In addition to the 2008 presidential race, Evangelicals also rallied to vote on a ballot measure that would define "the term 'person' to include any human being from the moment of fertilization." McCain continued to receive support among these conservative voters. White Evangelicals were 24% of the electorate and went 75% for McCain. However, Obama improved his standing over Kerry among white Evangelicals in Colorado by 10 points.In most of the swing states where Obama campaigned heavily, such as Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, he posted substantial gains among white Evangelicals.In the last four presidential elections, about one-third of Colorado voters were unaffiliated with either party. Independents backed Bush in 2000, but swung to Kerry in 2004. In 2008, the share of Independents increased six points; they went with Obama at about the same rate as they had for Kerry in 2004, 54% for Obama to 44% for McCain. The increased Independent share of the electorate was yet another reason for the uptick in the overall Democratic vote.White voters in Colorado, who made up 81% of the electorate, evenly split their votes between Obama and McCain.If there was a minor surprise in Colorado, it was the weaker than expected performance by Obama among Hispanics. The Hispanic share of the electorate has shifted within the exit polls' margin of error: in 2000 Hispanics were 14% of the vote; in 2004, they were 8%. In 2008, they were 13% of the electorate and they went for Obama, 61% to 38%. Latinos were one of the few groups in Colorado to become less Democratic this election. While they have been heavily Democratic in the presidential voting in Colorado, Republicans have been making steady inroads. In 1996, 12% of Hispanics voted Republican. In 2000, 25% did and in 2004, 30% did. In 2008, the number grew to 38% of Hispanics voting Republican.Also surprising in Colorado, the proportion of the vote that was 18 to 29 was the lowest share of the vote since 1992 and was down five points from 2000. In 2008, they basically split their vote about evenly between Obama and McCain. Voters under 30 have been behind the Democratic candidate in each election since 1992. The largest Democratic advantage was in 1996 when Clinton won 49% to Dole's 39%.Part of the reason for the change from red to blue was the impressive get-out-the-vote efforts by the Obama campaign. In Colorado, 51% of voters said they were reached by the Obama campaign, while only 34% of voters were reached by the McCain campaign.The Four Year Spring From Red to BlueThe first hints of a Democratic resurgence in Colorado were in 2004 when, in the face of a strong Republican tide nationally, Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat, netted a new U.S. House seat, took control of both houses of the state legislature, and the Kerry-Edwards ticket (without truly targeting the state) cut the Bush-Cheney 2000 eight point victory nearly in half. The Democratic ticket lost Colorado by less than five points in 2004, signaling, frankly, that the Democratic ticket erred in pulling out of the state that year.At the time, Republicans chalked up Ken Salazar's 2004 U.S. Senate win as nothing to be too concerned with. He was a pro-gun Democrat who did his best to distance himself from the national party. But as it turns out, Salazar's win (and that of his brother in a swing congressional seat in 2004) was a sign of things to come.Democrats continued their successful push for political power in the state in 2006 when Democrat Bill Ritter won the governor's race. In addition, the party netted yet another U.S. House seat.As if to telegraph their intent to make Colorado a seriously contested battleground state, the Democrats decided to hold their 2008 national convention in Denver.From the trend that started in 2004 to the very sophisticated campaign the Obama team put together to win Colorado to yet another strong performance down the ballot, Democrats have not only turned Colorado into a serious battleground but, right now, an argument can be made that it is more blue than purple.Consider this: the three top elected officials in the state are all Democrats, the state legislature is still controlled by the Democrats, and the party owns five of the state's seven U.S. House seats with only one that will be in serious jeopardy in 2010. And let's not forget Obama's nine point victory is a 14 point swing from 2004, one of the larger swings for the Democrats of any state, battleground or not.The Obama organizational juggernaut started in Colorado with the state party's decision to move up its presidential nominating caucuses to Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. As the Clinton campaign is painfully aware, the Obama team was very proficient at organizing these caucus states. It's not a coincidence that in some of the general election battleground states that featured the caucus process during the primary season, Obama not only won the states but put the states away fairly early in the fall. Besides Colorado, other battleground states that held caucuses during the primaries include: Iowa, Minnesota, and Nevada. In all four states, Obama won by a relatively comfortable margin.The key to Obama's success in the general election is that his campaign rarely shut down a state campaign during the primary season. If anything, the primary campaigns were used as building blocks for the fall. Such was the case with Colorado. In addition, the Obama folks took full advantage of the fact the state was the host of the Democratic convention. The penultimate organizing moment for the campaign in the state came on the final night of the convention when the Obama folks moved from Denver's basketball and hockey arena to the Broncos' home stadium. Obama's acceptance speech, in front of 80,000 attendees (mostly Coloradoans) at the football stadium also served as a massive in-state organizing tool. Based on the Election Day results, it's hard to argue that this focus on organizing didn't give Obama a distinct advantage.读者评价： If you're interested in the voting characteristics of the states, then you'll really like this book. Todd and Geiser give a pretty objective re-cap of the primary and general election campaigns in the introduction, and then go state-by-state, grouping them into "battlegrounds," "receding battlegrounds," "emerging battlegrounds," and "red/blue" states. Democrats will enjoy this more than Republicans, since the authors continually point out the demographic and ideological trends that are moving in the democrats favor. To their credit, though, they point out how this movement may be unique to this election or ultimately unsustainable, and does point out republican advantages in certain areas.Mostly, the analysis is spot on, and they reveal some interesting characteristics and patterns that even a junkie like me didn't catch. Still, I have a couple issues with their analysis.First, the youth vote. The authors say it was "overrated" for the most part and only made the difference in 2 states. They say this due to the fact that their turnout rate only increased by 1%, which didn't meet the inflated expectations of some. However, Obama won this vote by 66-32. No prior candidate, in the history of exit polling, EVER won any age cohort by such a large margin. The closest was Reagan in 1984, but by 20, not 34 points. Clearly, this indicates that republicans have some extremely serious problems with younger people that have only gotten worse since 2000. George W. Bush may have turned an entire generation away from his party.Second, the 5 "emerging" battleground states. Georgia, Nebraska, and Texas don't belong here. If Obama couldn't win GA in this environment, there is little chance for democrats down the road. GA has been trending red the last decade. And Texas's status is that it "might" be a battleground in 10 years. Well, by that logic so might California, since political fortunes will certainly change in a decade.Also, the authors are of the belief that the Republicans' problem is that their brand of conservatism no longer works well outside the south. They content that republicans must become more moderate to gain back footholds in the west, northeast, and midwest. I think this is questionable, since social issues like abortion and gay marriage were not really a part of the 2008 campaign, so it's impossible to judge whether or not such "moral values" were being rejected or not.To me, it's more a problem with their marketing/branding techniques than their beliefs. Their essential messages of low taxes, low spending, smaller government, strong defense, and personal responsibility have all enjoyed popularity throughout America's history. It's just that they no longer know how to communicate this effectively.Finally, in their descriptions of the campaign, the authors were far too generous in describing the effect of Sarah Palin as McCain's VP choice. Saying that she "stumbled" in some interviews is far too nice. She was incoherent. Then she became a polarizing figure. She may not have lost the election for McCain but she did not help one bit. Anywhere she might have helped were states McCain was already going to win.There was a fairly large number of grammatical errors peppered throughout the book. Indicative of sloppy editing, but judging from the displays at the bookstore, it looks like publishers wanted to get a slew of Obama-themed books out for the inauguration.Overall, though, a good book for a fair price. It's a quick read, and an excellent reference for political watchers. I recommend it.宝贝详情： ISBN 030747366X DEWEY 324.973 ISBN13 9780307473660(What's this?) Pages 258 Publisher Vintage Books USA Volumes 1 Imprint VINTAGE BOOKS Weight (grammes) 191 Format Paperback Height (mm) 204 Publication date 01 Jan 2009 Width (mm) 134 为读者找好书，为好书找读者！ ￥ 68 元 商城原版保障 Love at First Bite 吸血情缘 ￥ 55 元 商城原版保障A Walk to Remember Sparks, Nicholas ￥ 38 元 商城原版保障wives and daughters妻子和女儿 ￥ 108 元 原版Masterpieces: The Best Science Fiction of the 19 Century ￥ 120 元 商城原版保障 black boy 理查德·赖特《黑孩子》 ￥ 178 元 商城原Princeton Review Essential AP U S History Flashcards ￥ 85 元 商城原版保障 Brisingr: Eragon Book 3 ￥ 88 元 商城Toy Story 3 Read-Along Storybook and CD玩具总动员 ￥ 178 元 商城原版保障 Parnassus on Wheels 马车女书商 ￥ 95 元 原版Tropic of Cancer Henry Miller 亨利米勒 北回归线 每天有新品哦！快去我的店铺逛逛吧！
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