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But if they're going to try to have a race of who's more out of touch with the American people, John McCain was part of the military because he's kind of out of touch. Barack Obama has not had a traditional American upbringing. It seems to me that's a battle that neither side can particularly win.

The Democrats may be more likely to lose the Republicans. Somehow people feel they're more like their suburban background. I would not go negative if I were Obama.

As we've said, the key thing for Obama is to get himself categorized, get himself identified in the American people. If it's conventional politics, conventional negativity like these two ads, that's not Obama's message. That cuts against his core message.

JIM LEHRER: Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: I disagree. I think that the race, Jim -- John McCain has come back into this race by making Barack Obama the issue. And I think there's -- he has been able to do so, unhobbled, really, by the 200-pound lead weight of the Bush-Cheney record.

And I think that my question is, who of the speakers at this convention -- I don't think it's Mark Warner of Virginia, the key note, or I don't think it's Hillary Clinton -- maybe Bill Clinton, maybe Al Gore, or certainly the vice presidential nominee, if it's Joe Biden -- will make the case that 77 percent of Americans now believe that John McCain will continue the policies of George Bush.

And I think that has to be part of the message that's delivered and understood from this campaign -- at this convention.

JIM LEHRER: Mark, are the Democrats you've talked to -- already there and others still to come -- are they worried about the double-Clinton situation this next week, where it could walk on Obama or hurt him in some way?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, they're worried about a lot of things. I think they're skittishly optimistic, is the way I would put it right now. There's not buyer's remorse, but there are questions.

Democrats have seen this movie before, where they had, you know, a substantial lead in the summer and saw it melt. They have been cheered by sort of the responding this week and a new feistiness on the part of Obama and his campaign.

But the Clintons remain a psychodrama, and in particular Bill Clinton, and I think the Democrats are holding their breath and hoping that he can do what he did so well for himself in 1992, and that is to introduce, and make the case, and cast the election in the right terms. And there's probably nobody more better equipped to do it than Bill Clinton.

JIM LEHRER: Do you think Democrats should be holding their breath about the Clintons, David?

DAVID BROOKS: Not really, no. I think this is about Obama. I think most Americans have moved beyond it, with the exception of sort of a group of maybe upper-middle-class women between 39 and 54. But it's a small, very angry group.

I think, in general, Obama has to categorize himself. He has to be adhesive. He can't be a blank slate anymore. He has to define who he is. And that's the core issue. I think people -- the Clintons...

JIM LEHRER: And the Clintons can't foul that up, is what you're saying, not unlikely to, and couldn't even if they wanted?

DAVID BROOKS: And I think they're not likely. They're professionals about this.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Thank you both very much. And we'll see you in Denver next week.

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