Published: September 29, 2011 The Keys to Victory
Some Democrats believe Ohio may no longer be crucial to a 2012 election victory. Instead, states like Colorado and Virginia, with more highly educated voters, may be the Democrats’ must-win states. Related Article »
If President Obama were to win all of the states above this line, he would need an additional 17 electoral votes from states below it in order to win in 2012.
Circles are sized according to the number of electoral votes in 2012.
+20
percentage
points
McCain
Obama
+20
percentage
points
+40
+10
Margin
of victory
in 2008
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percentage with bachelor’s degrees or higher
Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
9
Conn.
Del.
Fla.
29
Ga.
Hawaii
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
11 votes
Iowa
6
Kan.
Ky.
La.
Me.
Md.
Mass.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb.
Nev.
N.H.
4
N.J.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
15
N.D.
Ohio
18
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
R.I.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Tex.
Utah
Vt.
Va.
13
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
Note. Washington, D.C., which has three electoral votes, is not shown. Percentage with bachelor’s degree or higher is for those 25 and older.
Sources: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections; Census Bureau
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